Abstract:

In this study, the Bayesian phylogenetic method was used to extract valuable information on epidemiological processes from 44 HIV$^{-1}$ (human immunodeficiency virus$^{-1}$) gene sequences of a young men who have sex with men (MSM) population sampled in Beijing, especially the transmission dynamic parameter, i.e., the effective reproductive number $R_{\rm e}$. These results reveal that the transmission of HIV/acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) increased rapidly during the period of 2006—2014, which may have a close relation to the growing acceptance of MSM in the past decade among young Chinese. The result reveals the HIV/AIDS transmission trend among the young MSM population over the past decade. Such information is meaningful and can help people understand and predict an epidemic, and establish intervention measures for the future.

Key words: HIV/AIDS (human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immune deficiency syndrome), the effective reproductive number, Bayesian inferences