Abstract: This paper proposed a satellite trajectory prediction method based on the idea of filtering. Drawing on the structure of long short-term memory（LSTM）networks, this method employed optimal estimation as the statistical method and began from the perspective of signal analysis, with a clear physical significance. Through comparative simulation experiments on short-arc orbit extrapolation, the performance differences between the wave model and the currently commonly used orbit extrapolation methods were verified. In the experiments, two wave models with different levels of systematic errors were used. The controlled variable experiments were conducted to discuss the effects of orbit altitude, observation accuracy, and observation arc length on forecast accuracy. For a short-arc observation data of three minutes, if the forecast duration is less than 10 minutes, the J2 wave model has comparable forecast accuracy to the dynamical extrapolation method and is superior to the Chebyshev extrapolation method for low earth orbit (LEO) targets, while the forecast accuracy of the J2 wave model is superior to that of the dynamical extrapolation method for geostationary earth orbit (GEO) targets.

Key words: wave function, orbit fitting, orbit forecasting