影子银行业务、公司治理与分析师盈余预测

doi:10.12066/j.issn.1007-2861.2306

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

影子银行业务受到学术界和监管部门的广泛关注. 利用标准普尔的 Compustat Global 企业数据库提供的 2010~2017 年我国上市非金融企业样本, 从非金融企业的影子银行业务与分析师预测准确度的关系进行研究. 结果发现, 非金融企业的影子银行业务量越大, 分析师预测偏差越大, 即预测准确度越低. 进一步分析后发现, 上述关系在内部控制质量低、机构持股比例低和信用等级低的企业更显著, 并且非金融企业的影子银行业务会增加企业的应计盈余管理, 降低信息披露质量. 最后, 替换了解释变量和被解释变量, 并考察了内生性问题, 结果依然稳健. 因此, 该研究不仅丰富了非金融企业参与影子银行业务的经济后果和分析师预测准确度方面的相关文献, 还对分析师警惕影子银行业务的风险和市场监管具有重要指导意义.

关键词: 影子银行业务, 公司治理, 分析师盈余预测

Abstract:

Shadow banking activities have received extensive attention from academia and supervisory bodies. To study this issue, this paper used data samples on China's listed non-financial enterprises from 2010 to 2017, obtained from the Standard & Poor's Compustat Global database, to examine the relationship between the shadow banking business of non-financial enterprises and the accuracy of analysts' predictions. This study found that the greater the participation of non-financial enterprises in shadow banking, the higher the error rate of analysts' predictions—that is, the lower their prediction accuracy. Further analysis showed that the above relationship was more significant in enterprises whose internal control quality, shareholding ratio of institutional investors, and credit ratings were low; moreover, it was observed that the shadow banking business of non-financial enterprises can increase the accrued earnings management of the enterprises and reduce the quality of information disclosure. The results remained robust after the measures of explanatory variables and explained variables were replaced. This study not only contributes to the literature on the economic consequences of the shadow banking business of non-financial enterprises and the accuracy of analysts' predictions, but also offers important guidance to analysts on being alert to the risks of shadow banking and market regulation.

Key words: shadow banking business, corporate governance, analysts' earnings forecast

中图分类号:

F832

颜恩点, 高思佳. 影子银行业务、公司治理与分析师盈余预测[J]. 上海大学学报(自然科学版), 2021, 27(5): 972-982.

YAN Endian, GAO Sijia. Shadow banking business, corporate governance and analysts' earnings forecasts[J]. Journal of Shanghai University（Natural Science Edition）, 2021, 27(5): 972-982.

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