基于SEM和Multi-agent,仿真的装配式建筑设计变更风险管理

doi:10.12066/j.issn.1007-2861.2270

上海大学学报(自然科学版) ›› 2022, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (6): 1038-1050.doi: 10.12066/j.issn.1007-2861.2270

• 研究论文 • 上一篇

基于SEM和Multi-agent,仿真的装配式建筑设计变更风险管理

杜娟¹^,²(), 王文鑫¹, 胡珉¹^,²

1.上海大学悉尼工商学院, 上海 201800
2.上海城市基础设施更新工程技术研究中心, 上海 200032

收稿日期:2020-06-29 出版日期:2022-12-30 发布日期:2020-11-24
通讯作者: 杜娟 E-mail:ritadu@shu.edu.cn
作者简介:杜娟(1981-), 女, 副教授, 研究方向为面向装配式建筑产业链的生产管理信息系统构建与实施、面向城市基础设施全寿命周期的工程项目风险治理与应对等. E-mail:ritadu@shu.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助项目(71701121);上海市科委资助项目(20DZ2251900)

SEM and multi-agent simulation-based design change risk management in prefabricated construction

DU Juan¹^,²(), WANG Wenxin¹, HU Min¹^,²

1. SILC Business School, Shanghai University, Shanghai 201800, China
2. Shanghai Engineering Research Center of Urban Infrastructure Renewal, Shanghai 200032, China

Received:2020-06-29 Online:2022-12-30 Published:2020-11-24
Contact: DU Juan E-mail:ritadu@shu.edu.cn

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

设计变更是影响装配式建筑项目绩效与安全的重要风险因素. 预制构件供应链有多个利益相关者参与, 系统复杂多变, 各参与方信息集成难度大, 使得项目难以实现系统有效的设计变更风险管控. 在归纳设计变更风险和风险诱发因素的基础上, 提出结构方程模型,(structural equation model, SEM),与,Multi-agent,仿真模型相结合的研究方法, 根据风险诱发因素识别提出管理策略, 结合项目实际模拟管理策略运行效果, 从而实现对设计变更风险的有效管控. 基于上海市南翔镇的装配式建筑项目建立本体实例库, 对结构方程模型实证分析提出的管理策略进行,Multi-agent,仿真模拟, 评估管理策略对项目成本和时间绩效的影响, 验证了模型的可行性和有效性.

关键词: 装配式建筑, 设计变更, 结构方程模型, Multi-agent,仿真

Abstract:

Design changes represent one of the main risk factors that affects the performance and safety of prefabricated building projects. Multi-stakeholder participation in prefabricated component supply chains involves a complex and changeable system, and information integration of each participant is difficult. This in turn makes it difficult for the project to achieve systematic and effective design change risk management and control. Based on the induction of design change risks and risk-causing factors, a method that combines a structural equation and multi-agent simulation model is proposed in this study. Management strategies are first proposed based on the identification of risk-inducing factors. The actual operational effects of these management strategies are then simulated to achieve an optimal allocation of resources. Based on a prefabricated construction project in Nanxiang Town, Shanghai, an ontology instance library is established, and the proposed management strategies by empirical analysis of the structural equation model are simulated through the multi-agent simulation model. The effects of the strategies on project cost and time performance are evaluated, and the feasibility and effectiveness of the model are verified.

Key words: prefabricated construction, design change, structural equation model, Multi-agent simulation

中图分类号:

F284

杜娟, 王文鑫, 胡珉. 基于SEM和Multi-agent,仿真的装配式建筑设计变更风险管理[J]. 上海大学学报(自然科学版), 2022, 28(6): 1038-1050.

DU Juan, WANG Wenxin, HU Min. SEM and multi-agent simulation-based design change risk management in prefabricated construction[J]. Journal of Shanghai University（Natural Science Edition）, 2022, 28(6): 1038-1050.

图/表 9

图1

表1

图2

图3

图4

表2

图5

表3

图6

参考文献 21

[1]	丁彦, 田元福. 装配式建筑施工质量与安全风险评价研究[J]. 建筑经济, 2019, 40(9): 80-84.
[2]	常莎莎, 周景阳, 何鹏旺. 全过程工程咨询在装配式建筑领域的应用研究与建议[J]. 建筑经济, 2020, 41(S1): 23-28.
[3]	宫培松, 张济武, 熊峰, 等. 基于构件拆分方案的装配式建筑全流程成本确定[J]. 建筑经济, 2020, 41(1): 76-83.
[4]	安慧, 匡彦曦, 杨雯晶, 等. 基于SEM的装配式建筑供应链整合动因分析[J]. 土木工程与管理学报, 2020, 37(1): 50-56.
[5]	方俊. 建设项目工程变更控制研究[D]. 重庆: 重庆大学, 2005.
[6]	马智亮, 马健坤. 消除建筑工程设计变更的定量激励机制[J]. 同济大学学报(自然科学版), 2016, 44(8): 1280-1285.
[7]	Luo L, Shen G Q, Xu G, et al. Stakeholder-associated supply chain risks and their interactions in a prefabricated building project in Hong Kong[J]. Journal of Management in Engineering, 2019, 35(2): 05018015.
[8]	黄桂林, 张闯. 基于SNA的装配式建筑绿色供应链风险[J]. 土木工程与管理学报, 2020, 37(2): 41-49.
[9]	马立, 周典, 贾建东. 西安交通大学人居学院科研楼装配式建筑设计优化[J]. 工业建筑, 2019, 49(4): 179, 200-205.
[10]	柳丽娟, 苏义坤, 周晓冬. 设计施工联合体博弈合作--以设计变更条件下大型建设项目为例[J]. 土木工程与管理学报, 2016, 33(3): 87-93.
[11]	刘凯, 丁晓欣, 刘春伟, 等. 基于灰色故障树的装配式建筑设计风险[J]. 土木工程与管理学报, 2020, 37(3): 162-167.
[12]	Silva T R D, Saalmann P, Cordes A K, et al. Integration architecture of intelligent maintenance systems and spare parts supply chain planning[J]. Procedia CIRP, 2014, 25: 192-198.
[13]	Touma R, Romero O, Jovanovic P. Supporting data integration tasks with semi-automatic ontology construction[C]// Proceedings of the ACM Eighteenth International Workshop on Data Warehousing and OLAP. 2015: 89-98.
[14]	Park S, Sugumaran V. Designing multi-agent systems: a framework and application[J]. Expert Systems with Applications, 2005, 28(2): 259-271.
[15]	孙鸿广. 基于多Agent集成的敏捷化供应链控制组织的研究[J]. 上海大学学报(自然科学版), 2003, 9(6): 558-564.
[16]	Taghaddos H, Hermann U, Abourizk S, et al. Simulation-based scheduling of modular construction using multi-agent resource allocation[C]// 2010 Second International Conference on Advances in System Simulation. 2010: 115-120.
[17]	Ameri F, McArthur C. A multi-agent system for autonomous supply chain configuration[J]. International Journal of Advanced Manufacturing Technology, 2013, 66: 1097-1112.
[18]	Dibley M, Li H, Rezgui Y, et al. An integrated framework utilising software agent reasoning and ontology models for sensor based building monitoring[J]. Journal of Civil Engineering and Management, 2015, 21(3): 356-375.
[19]	Dominguez R, Cannella S. Insights on multi-agent systems applications for supply chain management[J]. Sustainability, 2020, 12(5): 1935.
[20]	Li C Z, Hong J, Fan C, et al. Schedule delay analysis of prefabricated housing production: a hybrid dynamic approach[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2018, 195: 1533-1545.
[21]	Hwang B G, Shan M, Looi K Y. Key constraints and mitigation strategies for prefabricated prefinished volumetric construction[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2018, 183: 183-193.

基于SEM和Multi-agent,仿真的装配式建筑设计变更风险管理

SEM and multi-agent simulation-based design change risk management in prefabricated construction

RichHTML

PDF

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

图/表 9

参考文献 21

相关文章 0

编辑推荐

Metrics

本文评价