将震后伤员后送过程分为多个周期, 通过救护车与直升机联运的方式运送伤员. 考虑到不同周期伤员生存概率和心理成本变化, 采用三角模糊数描述伤员数量的不确定性, 以伤员生存概率最大化和心理成本最小化为目标, 建立应急医疗设施选址-多周期伤员后送模糊规划模型. 以汶川地震时都江堰市为例, 采用 Cplex 求解并进行敏感性分析. 结果表明: 在灾害前期优先运送重伤员, 中后期优先运送轻伤员, 可以更好地提高伤员生存概率并降低心理成本;用于紧急救治的运送车辆容量比后期治疗的转运车辆容量对伤员生存率的影响更大; 临时医院容量过小会造成轻伤员后送人数减少, 而后方医院容量过小会造成重伤员后送人数减少; 过多的医疗资源不再对伤员生存率和心理成本产生影响.

The post-earthquake evacuation process was divided into multiple periods and the casualties were transported through ambulances and helicopters. Considering the survival probability and psychological cost changes of casualties during different periods, a multiple-period dynamic fuzzy programming model for emergency medical facility locating and casualty evacuation was established to maximize the survival probability and minimize the psychological cost of casualties. The model used a triangular fuzzy number to describe the casualty uncertainty. The model was solved using Cplex and sensitivity analysis was performed using a real case based on the Wenchuan Dujiangyan earthquake. The following conclusions were obtained. To increase the survival rate of casualties and reduce psychological costs, severely injured persons should be prioritized for evacuation in the early stages of disasters, while those with mild injuries should be prioritized for evacuation in the later stages of disasters. Transport vehicles used for emergency treatment had a greater impact on the survival rate of injury casualties than those used for subsequent treatment. Temporary hospitals with a small capacity led to a decrease in the number of casualties with mild injuries, while rear hospitals with a small capacity led to a decrease in the number of those with severe injury. Excessive vehicles did not have an impact on the survival rate of casualties and psychological costs.